gold and silver are volatile, so past earnings are not much of a...

gold and silver are volatile, so past earnings are not much of a guide to future earnings - true of all 'commods'

as a result their sp's reflect spot metal movements and in particular the technical trend of the metal + the stock chart - ie is gold/silver in a bull or bear market much more than cashflow

so miner sps dont hold value like a bank or say woolworths. in economic terms they are price takers - no market control.

so - in bear phases - traders (and algos) tend to sell into green moves - they dont take the risk that a bull mkt wont follow


but once a new bull phase occur, the miners start to reprice in the implied earnings/nta. cheaper it is or more leverage it has (ie output) - the faster one sp moves vs another. which is why MKR is a great play here if you think a bull market resumes in gold in next little while

thats what those charts showed earlier - very close to that occurring. but until it does it hasnt


golds been in a bear trend for 13+ months now - which is a long 'bear' or consolidation phase if its part of a larger bull trend structure - in this case gold's been in a 22 yr up trend with a 10 year consolidation of 5 yrs down 5 yrs up

its a fun place but often not a buy and hold space - lots of extreme over bought then oversold discounts


weighed against all that and in particular gold pulling back after Fed talk last night - mt boppy news was very positive - but its not enough to change investor psychology vs the overall trend.

some news can - major intercepts that change perception of mine life by years or massive grade uplifts etc. But '1 standard deviation' improvements generally not.



you need to see a big picture to invest smart in precious metals exposures


or just buy when you thinks its cheap - and bottom drawer it until a big PM breakout occurs.


if you want to watch an SP a lot - do yourself a gigantic favour - compile a watchlist of other gold silver stocks

MKR has shown relative strength vs the large cap gold stocks in past while - most of our big cap golds currently hitting 2.5 year+ lower lows

thats because its a microcap - so it does exhibit a bit more individual strength because investors can clearly align NTA vs sp - and the good mining performance vs prior pessimism has helped improve views on the stock.

Much harder to do that on billion+ mkt cap stocks. + index funds influence the bigs much more


thats why i said months back it wasnt mgt or the mine performance driving down the sp in the main. it was the ongoing technical bear phase in gold price

amateurs tend to conflate sp direction with the specifics of a stock and mgt.

sometimes it is - but often its simply due the metal exposure it represents and the trend its in - and trader/machine pricing a metal price chart frown turns to a smile, or vice versa