Well my thinking was that at the present, Chinese tin traders must wait for a higher arbitration rate between London and Shanghai. Hence hold stock back until the right time so the supply is artificially lower than reported in LME.
With a new warehouse the arbitration is much less of an issue because the risk of higher transport costs and holding of inventory is transferred to LME. So if this happens - LME will in effect start reporting higher inventory levels and trade in China on higher tin liquidity/availability.
Yes you are right about the Chinese tin market prices would go lower. I wonder though if this will also wash through the global supply because LME is a global business so there is nothing stopping them from moving the Chinese tin elsewhere if demand is there.
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