Ann: MTD026 Update and Expansion of Mulga Tank Drilling, page-474

Great report@Glitterati, I think the Nickel component and graph is particularly relevant for this forum so posting here for interest. Clearly theres going to be a huge demand for Nickel not met by current production. (red line) or production capacity (red dashed line).

2023 Critical Materials Assessment Figure D.14 displays the demand of nickel (Ni) from 2020 to 2035 against current production and productioncapacity. Demand trajectories are modeled for the following clean energy demand areas: lithium-ion batteriesfor electric vehicles and for stationary storage, eletrolyzers for generating hydrogen, and fuel cells for vehicles.All other areas of demand are counted as non-energy demand and are assumed to grow at 3%. Trajectories Aand B are based on the IEA’s World Energy Outlook’s STEPS scenarios for growth in electric and fuel cellvehicle sales, stationary storage needs in MW, and hydrogen use, while Trajectories C and D are based on theIEA’s NZE (net zero emissions) scenarios. Trajectories A and C are based on low material intensities, whileTrajectories B and D are based on high material intensities for lithium-ion and nickel metal hydride batteries,fuel cells, and electrolyzers from the literature (Xu et al., 2020; Iloeje et al., 2022; Argonne 2023), as described 122 U.S. Department of Energy Critical Materials Assessment, 2023 in Appendix B. Total primary nickel demand is estimated from the USGS’s 2017 Minerals Yearbook and byapplying a 5% growth rate since then, based on historical CAGRs from the USGS’s 2018 Minerals Yearbook.

Production is based on 2020 USGS estimates from the USGS’s Mineral Commodity Summaries 2022 of totalnickel production. Stainless steel is recycled at a high rate, but because this process does not produce separatednickel that can be used to meet energy demand, it is not included in this analysis. Non-energy demand fornickel, likewise, includes only primary demand. While some nickel from lithium-ion batteries is recycled, andrecycled quantities are likely to grow in the future, the amount produced from end-of-life batteries in 2020 isestimated to be small enough not to substantially affect worldwide nickel supply.

Production capacity is estimated using the capacity utilization rate of 82% that was calculated for 2014 in the2019 CMS.