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27/04/24

12:22

Post #: 73536323
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Originally posted by UndergroundTrader: ↑

The nickel market can be pretty complex so I would recommend you to firstly research the different types of nickel ores - sulphide, laterite and even nickel pig iron. Nickel sulphide (which is what we have at Mulga Tank) contains the highest amount of actual nickel grade and concentration meaning it is the easiest to process when it comes to the metallurgy of it...because of this sulphides are deemed to be 'battery grade' which is a term you'll hear as purity's are required to be 99% to be used in lithium-ion batteries. Now the nickel laterite is what you're seeing in Indonesia and is what has ruined the market...because it is mined literally from surface it is a much more muddy, clayish ore and therefore, contains a very low nickel concentration and extremely hard to process into a viable product. Essentially what has happened over the years is China have invested billions into Indonesia to develop a technology to transform this 'dirty nickel' into a final product suitable for the market, mostly for stainless steel. Experts thought it couldn't be done but it has and it's shocked them, the HPAL technology is extremely energy intensive and contradicts every 'green transition' narrative there is...but they don't care and Indonesia are ripping up their own country (look at photos and videos) to mine as much laterite as they can, to which China floods the market with it.

Now when investing in commodities it is important to understand the cyclicality of it - when prices fall so much that it puts these huge Aussie mines into losing money, that puts a dent into the cost curve...now we have BHP's WA mines, Wyloo, IGO etc. all considering whether operating these mines are viable for them. Now when it gets to this point and especially when they announce official closure, it is a huge sign that it may be the bottom of the market as supply has now been taken out and therefore, the best buying opportunity has arisen. These are the complexities of commodity markets and supply/demand functions and these arguments should be undertaken with a much more long-term view.

The market believes grade is king, and I don't disagree it's an extremely important factor...but although Mulga Tank is looking to be an average 0.30%, the tonnage size is actually quite remarkable (potentially billions of tonnes). When scale is this large it can't be ignored, it clearly is who knows how many km's wide and over a km deep. The recent market uplift has been mostly due to the findings of some higher grade intervals that look promising and our deep 1600m EIS3 hole, not much has changed with the overall resource lately...it has been more of a function that the market was asleep at the wheel with WMG and now it's true market value is catching up. There is tremendous upside here to be an operating mine down the line, and any nickel price uplift would provide huge leverage.

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Great summary.

WMG Price at posting: 41.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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