This is brilliant and just what I’ve been waiting for. The tide is turning. Not home yet but certainly making strides and looking good. Here’s my take:
First let’s have a look how the recent announcements on prototype test breakthroughs have impacted price action. On the charts you can see share prices drifted from 5c down to 2.7c from April to August. This occurred on lowering volume and bullish divergence on OBV + RSI (daily chart). 5c area acted as support first, then it failed, and acted as resistance when the price tried to recover.
The breakthrough announcements resulted in huge supporting volume coming in and pushing back up through 5c resistance, to a high of 7c, and now looks to be coming down to flip that resistance into support, healthy retracement. The move down from 7c to 5c has happened on lowering anaemic volume and looks to be weakening, certainly looks nothing like a dump. If it can turn from here and get back above 7c that’ll mark an official change of market structure from bearish to bullish as you’ll have a HH/HL followed by a second HH. From there it could be off to the races but it will be critical to hold this 5c level and start to pivot back up.
Fundamentally, what is going to support this change of fortune for MTM?
- previous announcements relating to Lithium and Gallium extraction demonstrated to the market that the FLASH JOULE HEATING tech developed by Rice University was able to be successfully scaled up 100x from lab testing to prototype testing. Not a home run yet, but absolutely a significant milestone achievement that should build confidence and moderated excitement. At this stage they just need to get eyes looking in this direction and build awareness. And the market saw and the market agreed; rerating the share price by over 65%.
- Todays announcement provides the market with an update on the progress towards the next key milestone which is scaling up from prototype testing (500gms for those wondering about prototype quantities) to a 1 TONNE PER DAY PILOT PLANT, which will no doubt form the platform from which partnerships and offtake discussions will be driven forward. It will prove up the concept on a commercial scale.
- The design plans were originally slated for completion in Q4 2024, and todays announcement reaffirms to the market that as of today, this deadline is on track to be met.
- Construction is set to commence Q1 2025.
- Commercial operations Q2 2025.
- Hitting these deadlines and moving through the stages on time, will be a critical factor in ensuring the estimated non-dilutive capital requirement of $3m to build the plant remains valid. Any delays increase the likelihood of cost increases.
- I think todays announcement is timed and designed to give the market peace of mind that these milestones are firmly on track, and thus far there is no reason to expect any deviations from the previously laid down plans.
- Further strengthening the case for this tech and the timely achievement of the companies goals has to be around the teams they are working with - enough has not been said about the fact that RICE UNIVERSITY developed the tech, and KNIGHTHAWK ENGINEERING are the team entrusted to design the pilot plant. These are not run of the mill operators.
- Rice Uni has a solid history in technological innovations AND commercialising them through licencing partnerships with private and public companies. Key examples include:
- Weebit Nano/ReRam Semiconductor Chips. Public company ASX.
- Universal Matter/Flash Joule Heating licenced ONLY for the use of Graphene production. Private company.
- Knighthawk Engineering, do your research on these guys. You don’t engage Knighthawk if you’re just playing around with some cute novel tech that doesn’t have a good chance of getting somewhere. These guys are at the forefront of progressing innovative tech from concept to commercialisation. Their list of clients is something to behold.
- Lithium and gallium are just one part of the opportunity. Further prototype testing is being conducted right now to produce rare earths, niobium, alumina, and titanium to name a few. And the pilot plant is being designed with the view to be able to produce the whole range of materials not just lithium, not just titanium, but any and all materials that demonstrate scalability. The more materials they can scale up and include, means more potential customers knocking on their door to do a deal; prove up this tech and there will be countless behemoths in each of these industries who will be under pressure to reduce their environmental impact, and thus the potential to cut out entire large sections from their flowsheets will be too great to ignore. Speculation on Albemarle is speculation, but I agree with other posters it is a compelling narrative indeed!
- Finally, want to retouch on Universal Matter. They have been licenced by Rice Uni for graphene production ONLY; MTM have the rights to use FJH to produce every single other material possible that is commercially viable. The licence is exclusive and global. The market is completely free of competitors. Now, looking at Universal Matter, you can see a company that is already using this tech to commercially produce Graphene and they have established a sustainable business on the back of this tech. So, we can already see it works viably! How do we evaluate the potential for MTM to do the same with other materials? Well there’s no sure things in life but what we have got is proof from Universal Matter that it works at scale, we can see that MTM have the best engineering team on the job, and we can see Lithium and Gallium extraction has achieved scale of 100x from its initial concept stage. If these trends in scaling continue, if the range of applications continue to increase, and the pilot plant has a smooth path to fruition with key milestones and cost estimates being met… not even the sky wil limit where this can go.
There are a few people in this page who will now come out and sling mud at what I’ve said but pay careful attention - they will offer nothing but defamatory emotive rhetoric, clever schoolyard insults and snappy one liners, with no basis in probabilistic realities let alone any concrete facts. I still have no idea why or what their end game is. They certainly are not here to play Robin Hood! Choose what info you want to give more weight to. Investing is about uncertainty, extracting the biggest reward and looking for companies to announce developments that are actively driving down the risk elements that are standing in the way of their success. MTM have now reached a stage where I believe the floodgates are opening, they are ticking off these milestones that are lowering the risk profile, and they look to be indicating to the market that there is plenty more to look forward to.
My conclusion: TA and FA are screaming “opportunity!” Thats just my opinion. Good luck
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