As a comparison, Roch's estimates were based on a 37% risk factor (sale price discount), which was a lower percentage than I estimated :-$A 3.20 /share for 17 Tscf, that means an estimate at Discoveryis (1/5th) = 65c – 75c
$A 3.75 /share for 20 Tscf, that means an estimate at Discovery is (1/5th)= 75c – 85c
$A 5.63 /share for 30 Tscf, that means an estimate at Discovery is (1/5th)= $ 1.15 - $1.25
$A 6.55 /share for 35 Tscf, that means an estimate at Discovery is (1/5th)= $ 1.30 - $1.40
Therefore, his/her $A 2.40 estimate on discovery, does this tentatively imply a 51% farm-in based on a Mean volume= 25 Tscf? Scaling up, a 51% farm-in for 35 Tscf would be $A 3.34 per share (up to $A 4.00 range)
Roch's estimate based on a 100% buy-out price would be about $A 6.55/share for Mean Estimated Volume=35 Tscf (by extraploating his original estimates based on a 37% risk factor).
