I think the point Tortuga - unless I'm misunderstanding you...

I think the point Tortuga - unless I'm misunderstanding you - is that it will have to reach a sustained price or else supply will drop again.

The equilibrium price is above $55 because that's what's needed for most of the supply.

If the supply crunch unfolds as expected - given the long lead time for new mines - the price is likely to be at a level much higher than this for several years (after the likes of VMY goes into production).

The risks of a drop increase in the long term as new supply comes online (a lower equilibrium price) but only if their cheap producers or if demand doesn't keep pace with new supply.

This scenario would be a welcome problem to contemplate in my early retirement.