WMG western mines group ltd

Ann: Mulga Tank Mineral Resource Over 5Mt to Contained Nickel, page-54

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    "The Company uses the BOTE methodology to continuously evaluate early stage projects and drive capital
    management decisions:"

    "the key now is to focus our exploration on the higher grade areas within this huge open-pitable volume - looking to followup on the 23 intersections greater than 1% nickel, including results up to 4.5% Ni and 4.8% Cu, clustering in various zones across the Complex.”
    What is BOTE Methodology?
    In mining and resource exploration, "BOTE" typically stands for "Back of the Envelope". It’s an informal, high-level estimation technique used to quickly assess a project’s potential without detailed data or complex modeling. For an early-stage project like Mulga Tank—where the Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) is maiden and metallurgical test work is preliminary—BOTE would be a practical tool for WMG to gauge viability and prioritize capital allocation. Here’s how it likely applies:
    Explanation of BOTE in Context
    1. Purpose:
      • Rapid Evaluation: BOTE allows WMG to make rough calculations of key metrics (e.g., resource size, costs, revenue potential) using available data, like the 1.9 Bt at 0.27% Ni MRE, to see if Mulga Tank warrants further investment.
      • Capital Management: Early-stage projects are high-risk and capital-intensive. BOTE helps decide where to deploy limited funds—drilling, test work, or other prospects—by identifying projects with the best initial promise.
    2. How It Works:
      • Simplified Assumptions: WMG would use basic inputs from their data—like tonnage (1.9 Bt), grade (0.27% Ni), recovery (63%), and benchmarked costs (US$10/t)—to estimate potential outcomes.
      • Quick Math: For example:
        • Contained nickel = 1.9 Bt × 0.27% = 5.13 Mt (close to their 5.3 Mt figure, accounting for rounding).
        • Recoverable nickel = 5.13 Mt × 63% = ~3.23 Mt.
        • At US$16,000/t (hypothetical 2025 nickel price), gross value = 3.23 Mt × $16,000 = ~US$51.7 billion.
        • Annual ore at 40 Mtpa × 0.17% recoverable Ni = 68,000 t Ni/year; value = ~US$1.09 billion/year.
        • Operating cost = 40 Mt × US$10/t = US$400 million/year; rough margin = US$690 million/year.
      • Sanity Check: These figures are rough but let WMG test if Mulga Tank’s scale justifies further exploration versus peers.
    3. Continuous Evaluation:
      • Iterative Process: As new data emerges (e.g., from drilling or metallurgy), WMG updates BOTE estimates. For Mulga Tank, the shift from exploration to a maiden MRE (April 2025) likely refined their BOTE model, confirming its size (5.3 Mt Ni) and shallow, open-pit potential.
      • Flexibility: Early-stage projects evolve rapidly. BOTE’s simplicity allows WMG to adapt plans—e.g., prioritizing deeper drilling for massive sulphides if disseminated zones underperform.
    4. Driving Capital Decisions:
      • Prioritization: If BOTE shows Mulga Tank’s potential revenue far exceeds costs (e.g., US$690M/year vs. US$400M/year), WMG might allocate more capital to metallurgical tests or resource expansion over other prospects.
      • Risk Mitigation: By avoiding over-investment in unproven areas, BOTE ensures funds go where early indicators suggest value.
    Mulga Tank Application
    For Mulga Tank, WMG’s BOTE likely started with geophysical data (magnetic highs) and historical drilling, estimating a large dunite-hosted system. Post-MRE, they’ve incorporated:
    • Size: 1.9 Bt, 5.3 Mt Ni—big enough to flag as a top-tier prospect.
    • Costs: US$3–4/t mining, US$5–7/t processing, 1:1 strip ratio, low enough for viability.
    • Recovery: 63%—workable but needing refinement.This rough sketch supports their "biggest in Australian history" narrative and justifies further work, like the flotation tests on hole MTD029, to firm up numbers.
    Why BOTE Matters
    • Speed: Detailed feasibility studies take years; BOTE gives WMG a quick read to stay agile in a competitive market.
    • Investor Appeal: Highlighting a 5.3 Mt Ni resource with low-cost potential via BOTE can attract funding, even in a nickel downturn.
    • Scalability: It fits Mulga Tank’s large, low-grade profile, where precise data is less critical than proving bulk potential early on.
    Summary
    WMG’s use of the BOTE methodology is a pragmatic, iterative approach to assess Mulga Tank’s early-stage potential and guide capital decisions. By running quick, assumption-driven estimates, they’ve likely validated its massive scale (5.3 Mt Ni) and low-cost open-pit prospects, driving investment in drilling and test work. It’s a strategic tool to balance risk and reward, ensuring they focus on a project that could indeed be Australia’s largest nickel sulphide deposit by contained metal.

    What's next ?

    Funding ?

    Drill plan ?

    The market is obviously expecting the dreaded 3 monthly (and why wouldn't it ?) .

    I don't know anything,
 
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