Ann: Multiple contracts won for AVA Risk Group's Ai-X fibre tech, page-12

I don't really have a valuation based on what mgmt have indicated they are going to do in FY26 given there have been a lot of hype around their technology, but the numbers (&sales) don't reflect that.

The below shows that excluding the logistics business, Ava was mainly profitable when IMOD revenues came in (which were at extremely high margin given they have outsourced the manufacturing). What is a positive (albeit just marginal given no material improvement) is that post Mal coming in, revenues have stabalised and we are seeing positive EBITDA over the last 2 halves without any large one-off items.

If 1H24 comes in at 15m, then again just a relatively stable business that is very marginally EBITDA positive (not sure its cashflow positive), with potential for growth off that base......the big unknown question mark is whether they get to >$36m for FY24 as they seemed to have indicated they can do.

If we assume they do $40m for FY24 at an EBITDA margin of ~14%, then you are looking at EBITDA of ~6m and on a multiple of 8 you get the current valuation......so a long way of saying that they need to deliver on 40m this year to maintain this valuation.