RLT 3.43% 84.5¢ renergen limited

Ann: MULTIPLE PHASE 2 HELIUM SALES AGREEMENTS SECURED, page-71

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  1. 5,189 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 1123
    OK here are my "back of envelope" scratchings:

    As you say, the Phase 2 production of 5 tpd He (if all sold) should yield US$100 million/annum (=AD$135 million.)

    And the other 97% of Phase 2 production is LNG, which is, say 160 tpd (round figures).
    We know 1 tonne of LNG contains 54 Giga Joules.
    And we know that RLT are selling LNG for 120 Rand/GJ.
    So 160 tpd x 54 x 120 = 1,036,800 Rand/day. (Let's say 1 million Rand/day for round figures.)
    That's about AD$97,000/day, or AD$35 million/annum.

    So the total sales of all Phase 2 gases = 135 + 35 = AD$170 million/annum.
    There are currently 124 million SOI. (That will increase but let's call it 125 it for now.)
    So EPS = 170/125 = AD$1.36.
    Using a PER of, say 12 (pretty conservative?) gives a SP of AD$16.32.

    So that's about 10 x where we are now.
    I know there's quite a while until Phase 2 comes on stream but I fail to see how there can't be upside from here.

    Cheers,
    FHC
 
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