CCM

6.67%

4.8¢ cadoux limited

Are the numbers you are quoting for the forecast SP rise based...

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dbd25

6,833 Posts.

2580

07/09/21

18:53

Post #: 55901080
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Originally posted by fincmifr: ↑

Couldn't agree more. I assume you're referring to Cassandra.

I still have a large holding and very bullish. That being said I don't think a short term retrace to 63c would be out of the question (just based on charts). Based on today's action, the bottom might be in though. I would be very surprised if this isn't bought up again back to mid 80's within a week or two. Fundamentals haven't changed - if anything they are slightly better.

I'd previously said at 78c that it appeared to be priced on an expectation of 50/50 JV with equal funding obligations for a single plant. Seems more likely to me now that this venture will be valued by the market long-term on a 15-20 earnings multiple based on CAGR of HPA, IP, and clear intention to expand globally. As such, I could see this achieving 80c - $1.92 short term, and anywhere up to $4-$5 in the longer term (in production) based on my own numbers.

I know others have speculated that the resource itself is unique and contributes significantly to the value proposition but I'm highly sceptical of that view. I don't think Alcoa would be getting involved if they thought the whole process was dependent on this one specific Kaolin deposit. Consequently I don't think the resource size is a limiting factor at all in the valuation, which it would be if we were valued based on the NPV of the DFS.

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Are the numbers you are quoting for the forecast SP rise based on 15x-20x the earnings derived from the earning numbers in the updated DFS ? The EBIDTA from the DFS was A$248m, (so profit after tax ~ $174m). Just want to be clear.

All IMHO, DYOR

FYI Price at posting: 75.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 4.8¢		Change 0.003(6.67%)		Mkt cap ! $17.80M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
4.9¢	5.2¢	4.8¢	$10.29K	203.7K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	58205	4.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
4.8¢	55019	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	58205	0.045
1	200000	0.041
2	325000	0.040
1	12565	0.039
1	15000	0.035

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.048	55019	1
0.055	23138	2
0.058	83690	1
0.059	50847	1
0.060	138186	3

Last trade - 15.57pm 08/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

CCM (ASX) Chart

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