Yes he would though I haven't seen an estimate from MYL. Have you?
Are you suggesting that he told Kalenn the AISC but not the market?
To date we have seen neither a production plan nor cost estimates.
Let's assume an AISC of $10,000 per tonne of nickel in con, a throughput of 1.2 Mtpa and 8,750 tonnes of nickel in con, numbers drawn from the stellar work of the pundit in residence.
Now 8750 x 10,000 / 0.7 / 1,200,000 = AUD100 per ore tonne milled.
I've given you a list of similar mines and not one of them has a cost per tonne even close to that. They are all underground mines and generally of similar size. They all go drill, geologise, design, plan, schedule, develop, ventilate, drill, blast, dig, truck (GG 25% hoist), back fill, crush, grind, treat, truck, ship, smelt and refine and rehab so unless Avebury can avoid a few of those steps it is going to incur costs which one would think would be similar. Some development has been done which may give an early benefit but it won't take long to chew through those developed stocks.
We have no idea of the time it might take to get up to a sustainable throughput of 900ktpa, let alone 1200ktpa. The mill can be turned on over the course of a few months but the mine has to be turned up to the mill capacity. How did OZ run the place before closing it? Did they reduce detailed diamond drilling thereby leaving today's planners with less volume they can confidently design stopes around? Did they cut development rates and concentrate on stoping thereby reducing developed stocks? Don't know but when times are tough that's what happens and if it did then the rate of increase in production will reflect the need to catch up.
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