There's confusion about the Nextstellis numbers presented and this is critical to the way the share market is viewing the Nextstellis growth story.
My considered assessment of the Nextstellis numbers in slide 11, the IQVIA numbers, is that they under-represent the sold cycles by a significant margin (about 23%) and that the April 40.8K figure could be closer to 50K. Stay with me this is my reasoning:
These are the two sets of figures presented in May-24 and Feb-24
And these are the same figures tabulated
|
| IQVIA | Demad cycles |
|---|
| 1 |
| Slide 11 May24 | Slide 16 Feb 24 |
|---|
| 2 | 01/01/23 | 17.1 | 22 |
|---|
| 3 | 01/02/23 | 18.5 | 22 |
|---|
| 4 | 01/03/23 | 20.1 | 27 |
|---|
| 5 | 01/04/23 | 21.4 | 26 |
|---|
| 6 | 01/05/23 | 23.2 | 31 |
|---|
| 7 | 01/06/23 | 25.3 | 32 |
|---|
| 8 | 01/07/23 | 26.9 | 33 |
|---|
| 9 | 01/08/23 | 29.5 | 38 |
|---|
| 10 | 01/09/23 | 30.5 | 35 |
|---|
| 11 | 01/10/23 | 32.4 | 40 |
|---|
| 12 | 01/11/23 | 33.6 | 38 |
|---|
| 13 | 01/12/23 | 34.1 | 40 |
|---|
| 14 | Total CY23 | 312.6 | 384 |
|---|
| 15 | 01/01/24 | 36.4 | 44 |
|---|
| 16 | 01/02/24 | 36.4 |
|
|---|
| 17 | 01/03/24 | 37.6 |
|
|---|
| 18 | 01/04/24 | 40.8 |
|
|---|
There's a 23% discrepancy between the two. The piece of information that determines for me which is more credible is the reported number of total cycles sold as reported by Mithra in their 2023 annual report. ie from Jan 23 to Dec 23 and that figure is 385K which is almost exactly the demand cycles. Here's the extract from Mithra's 2023 report.
The other piece of information that I am relying on to make this conclusion, is that the IQVIA numbers are known to under-represent the true sales as they do not have access to sales from all pharmacies including Mayne Pharma's own pharmacy Adelaide Apothecary. Obviously I am seeking further information because this confusion needs to be cleared up.
Cheers
(20min delay)