MYX 0.00% $3.88 mayne pharma group limited

Ann: MYX signs license agreement for women's health products, page-139

  1. 166 Posts.
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    FLyer100,

    Would love to have the same faith in this deal that you obviously have. I am a long-term investor *not* looking for a quick way out so; my take on your statements.re:

    MCS -they got a reasonable price; but unfortunately MYX could no longer play hard ball and keep or push for a higher price. They need to write-off more goodwill and this would have breached lending covenant's and they'd be up the shitter.

    Paid 3X for same profit - this isn't exactly accurate - gross profit. So revenue minus manufacturing. The company they purchase the products from lost $54m over *JUST* the last two years Q2's (Gross Profit - Operating Expenses). Sure there will be other costs here, such as office, admin, some administrative roles; so not clear how much of those Operating Expenses are directly related to the products, but given that's the whole business essentially - it would be significant. We need to turn these products into cash flow positive *before* we run out of money and at the moment we haven't seen any details of a new lending facility. Concern - that IF all of the capital return goes ahead; there ain't much left

    Synergies - They haven't created these - there is an opportunity of these. Suggesting the need to sink another $20m into Marketing and Sales next year on top of what we and them are already spending suggests this will take more work than just a few training courses and leaflets.

    Wiped out debt - 100% agree. *BUT* with this purchase and the capital return we are out of cash. So as you have suggested - we wiped it out. Now we are introducing a level of risk as the company *will* require a lending facility very quickly. Remember Nextstellis is currently $6.2m REVENUE p.a. (admittingly growing slowly) - we are spending over $50m p.a.

    Giving back dividend - This is a small reward; BUT those investors who held before this announcement has lost more SP value than the capital and special dividend. The commentary and actions (hinting at another couple hundred in write downs, and the spending of the remaining free cash on still establishing drugs) have eroded more value than the idea of giving back capital bought. This is because of 4-letters. RISK. We are now in a position where if this capital and special dividend go ahead as intended - we have nothing in the bank to allow for things not to go 100% right.

    As someone else on this forum indicated. End of next full period Nextstellis (current revenue 6.2m p.a.) is supposed to turnover $200m ... Yes this has been revised down SIGNIFICANTLY now, but the track record of delivering on commentary at General Meetings just is non-existant... Not even same ball park.

    DYOR - there is plenty to digest.
    Last edited by Dickkyboy: 09/12/22
 
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