Hi all, Yep, the Wheeties felt pretty heavy when I read the...

Hi all,

Yep, the Wheeties felt pretty heavy when I read the announcement after breakfast. But that's the exploration game: its a little technical knowledge, massaged with semi-reasoned probability then filtered through complex yet subjective cost/benefit matrices, sandwiched between a budget. Gambling to some.

It is however, a different ball game when you have two opportunities in a frontier region. In actual fact, it is often the wrong decision to drill the most obvious or 'low hanging fruit' first in regions where there is relatively low/poor geological well control. It all comes down to which target, in a 2-well program, is likely to provide the broadest, the most relevant data.

In PVD's case, Toubkal never presented any Jurassic targets, whereas MZ1 presented the full likely HC time spectrum. So now the JV will have much higher quality data over both the Cretaceous and Jurassic with which to recalibrate their time/depth stacks. This in turn will upgrade/downgrade all the other targets within the surveyed areas. If they had drilled Toubkal first, we'd still be none the wiser on any of the Jurassic opportunities. From what I understand, MZ1 was roughly in the same probabilistic band as Toubkal but would give up much more data. So hence MZ1 first off.

So I'll now be very interested to see/hear how the new data has really affected the existing known targets. If Toubkal gets upgraded as a result, then great...punch a hole in it. But the recalibrations may also light up something completely different...better?

Hopefully later this year, DN will be able to present the new, recalibrated target list.

80ft toy on hold for another year.

Cheers.