Here's the thing with fatality rates ...The doctor that...

Here's the thing with fatality rates ...

The doctor that discovered it (in Early Dec aged 34 and announced to world in late dec) passed away today. I assume he has had the disease for 1-2 months. So going on numbers from your article above of 30,828 confirmed cases and 635 deaths or 2.05% death rate, it is really a nonsense number as the person who was diagnosed with it, say yesterday, and who is included in the total infections may pass away 2 months from now.

So realizing this lag exists you would have to say the death rate is much higher than that is being reported. The only saving grace here is that its likely that many low level cases are probably not being reported and may drop the fatality rate. The simply answer here is no one knows.


In previous outbreaks, eg, SARS the Chinese govt under reported numbers dramatically. Some pundits/commentators say its safe to assume a 10x multiple to the number cases reported in reality. Which may put us in the range of 300,000 infections right now in China alone. Once it reaches this stage it is extremely difficult if not impossible to contain given patients without symptoms can be infectious for many days (14?) and are mobile.


Now I would also like to add that there exists a large expat Chinese community in Africa. Africa as a whole has a poor health system/ infrastructure and monitoring. Once it enters Africa (or any 3rd world country for that matter), and I assume its already there, its progress will be for all intent and purposes be unchecked, unreported and hidden. So short of banning every plane, ship train or bus etc from all countries for a prolonged period of time the virus will continue to spread IMHO.