All up I consider this to be a solid result.
NCK will always find their profits moving up and down a little inside the economic and building cycles.
But to me they hardly ever fail to achieve the best result possible with the cards they're dealt due to smart management and a solid business model.
To begin with they're not a normal retailer. They manufacture to order rather than fill their store with floor stock and then have to work to sell that out in order to make room for the next months stock delivery. Under tough conditions, overstocked retailers discount their products and finish with lowers sales numbers and smaller Gross Profit margins.
NCK seem to have a disciplined, pre-scripted approach to selling that doesn't involve discounting which is how, in the main, they manage to hold their GP margins up.
It's mildly fascinating to watch their constant advertising on TV where every month offers an end of month clearance (or words to that effect). You'd be forgiven for thinking that they must never make a profit with all the clearances they're involved in.
The more likely truth is that they've never offered a real discount during their whole existence. Amazing marketing.
The Australia / New Zealand rollout has slowed down as, I presume, it's becoming more and more difficult to find appropriate site opportunities.
This will probably mean that low to mid-single digit growth may be all you can expect out of the local area. That's a satisfactory result when the share price offers a P/E result of, traditionally, between 11 and 13 times. I note that, it's currently edging closer to 15 times, but I won't pretend to know what SP's are ever going to do.
They key to growth rests with this stuff in the UK. Anthony's detailed the issues to build the business and the timelines involved. It's pleasing that he gives investors an insight into what he sees as the issues and how he intends to sort through them. We just have to await progress here.
I worry that there's a big difference between manufacturing your product in Asia and shipping it across the Pacific as opposed to having to ship it around the bottom of Africa because of the problems in the Suez.
I don't know if the Suez disruptions were a thing when he first decided to sell in the UK.
It's always interesting, this investing thing.
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