"..in order to survive economically it (NCZ) needs to become profitable.."
No, in order to survive, NCZ just needs to break even.
Generally speaking, as shareholders, we clearly want to invest in companies that are profitable, the more profitable, the better. A company that breaks even has no interest to a shareholder.
However to management and employees, while they too would like to be part of a profitable enterprise, that is more of aspiration to them, as opposed to a necessity, which it is to shareholders.
Consider this deal, even though the company will put the best light on it, if the execs are confident that this will at least break even (some years a small loss, others a small profit etc but on balance break even) then imo they will sign on the bottom line.
For an exec, what better than to get involved with something that will go on for decades (as apparently resource is that big). They no longer need to concern what to do in 5 or 6 years when tailings run out or whether they can build a zinc mine after etc. This deal will provide them with income for the rest of their working lives. They can now take on that multi million dollar mortgage, buy that expensive car, put their kids in the best private schools etc. They will have the income stream to do all that.
If NCZ take on this deal and its profitable, fantastic. But as long as their DD gives them a high degree of confidence of at least break even, the deal will be done. Plus they will have provisions, clauses etc that if they miscalculated and it turns out to be a loss maker after 5 or 6 years (or some extreme event ruins things) then there will be generous severance packages so they will be no worse off than not doing a deal, but it will take another 5 years or more just to get to that position. As one poster said "this effectively kicks the 'we hit success' can down the road by several years".
Of course the SP will have its ups and downs so there will be opportunities to trade etc, and it may become over bought, or over sold etc. But it will now be years before its known if good profits will actually be made if it goes ahead.
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