Pretty simple answer mate. The spot price of gold has been taking a big hit. With the most recent rate rise (which was already partly priced in to gold), and the additional hike forcasted for 2017 (making it three), gold is very bearish at the moment. A lot of investors are staying clear of gold. Plain and simple.
However, now to the positives.
(1) IMO it is actually a good thing that EXC are producing tomorrow, with the spot price of gold around $1500 AUD per oz. History will show that hikes in interst rates will cause gold to fall leading up to the decision... and shortly after... but as these decisions are often 100% expected (such as the rate decision last night), price is already marginally priced in. But gold will now start to settle at current levels... and start to rally (albeit slightly) over the next few months. So when EXC is ready to produce, the spot price of gold SHOULD be trading at higher levels.
(2) You can't look at EXC, and any gold investment, as a short term investment. Gold is still up over 5% for 2016. It has been bearish over the last couple months, but this will turn around. It always does... whether that is in next few months, or a year from now... prices will be bullish again.
(3) The change in the spot price for gold ultimately does not change the fundamentals of EXC. It does not change the fact the are moving into production. It may change peoples interest in any gold stock, but not how the company is currently operating. I agree it isn't great to see the company SP trade at 4c (or lower), but I am sure management isn't overly worried about what the share price does in in the short.. they would be more focused on getting EXC into production. Once again... think longer tern investment.
(4) Not a key point... but thought I would mention... remember that Trump is only president-elect. Once he is officially president on Jan 20th... who knows what he will do and how the market may react?? At the moment the market has reacted based purely on his planned intentions and words (not actions).
(5) Finally, I will finish off by saying, as long as the spot price of gold doesn't drastically drop off to under $1200- $1300 AUD per oz... then it should remain above the costs etc... associated with EXC producing. As such, EXC will hace postive cash flow.
IMO, gold is oversold at the moment. The lastest interest rate hike was for the most part, priced in. Heading into 2017, I feel prices will more or less settle at current levels.. before making a rally early-mid 2017.
As long as EXC continue to tick the right boxes and move into production, the price of gold will take care of itself. For those feeling anxious and worries about current share price levels... I can assure you (IMO), that as long as there are not any major delays or disruptions to EXC producing (which from all reports will not be the case), then the SP will react accordingly.
Patience is often the key.
Enjoy your Christmas break and I look forward to seeing how everything plays out early next year.
As always, IMO. DYOR.
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