I think the discounts seems about right. Given the track record...

I think the discounts seems about right. Given the track record it does not seem reasonable to assume that the NTA will grow much. So you are gambling on a narrowing of the discount. Pretty much the only way for that to happen is that Leanne Catalan buys out minorities. This seems relatively likely because that is in her interest, but may take a bit of time. If you give credit to the earn out and assume it takes 3 years you end up with c15% return per year, but that is pretty much the best case in my view; unless Leanne gets run over by a bus in the meantime which would be very beneficial for minorities and something I am sure all shareholders are praying for, but remains a low probability event unfortunately. Worryingly there is a way for Leanne to make a handsome return while minorities loose, by just waiting and buying on market occasionally. Take into account some of these less good scenarios and you end up with approximately a market return.