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$3.19 excelsior capital ltd

It appears you have taken into account various probabilities,...

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nicleeson

2,253 Posts.

66

15/02/24

19:09

Post #: 72430687
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Originally posted by kasparhauser: ↑

I think the discounts seems about right. Given the track record it does not seem reasonable to assume that the NTA will grow much. So you are gambling on a narrowing of the discount. Pretty much the only way for that to happen is that Leanne Catalan buys out minorities. This seems relatively likely because that is in her interest, but may take a bit of time. If you give credit to the earn out and assume it takes 3 years you end up with c15% return per year, but that is pretty much the best case in my view; unless Leanne gets run over by a bus in the meantime which would be very beneficial for minorities and something I am sure all shareholders are praying for, but remains a low probability event unfortunately. Worryingly there is a way for Leanne to make a handsome return while minorities loose, by just waiting and buying on market occasionally. Take into account some of these less good scenarios and you end up with approximately a market return.

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It appears you have taken into account various probabilities, curious what percentage likelihood you have entered in your spreadsheet to the bus scenario?

ECL Price at posting: $3.02 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $3.19		Change -0.010(0.31%)		Mkt cap ! $92.49M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$3.19	$3.19	$3.19	$6.032K	1.891K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	4617	$3.19

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$3.26	8000	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	4617	3.190
1	3100	3.180
1	3100	3.150
1	328	3.050
1	2500	3.040

Price($)	Vol.	No.
3.260	8000	1
3.500	5000	1
0.000	0	0
0.000	0	0
0.000	0	0

Last trade - 14.07pm 03/05/2024 (20 minute delay)

ECL (ASX) Chart