That's right; broadly Starlink is a means to an end, or at least...

That's right; broadly Starlink is a means to an end, or at least it began that way, but Netlinkz seems to have pretty crack satellite team and now an expanding world view as new territories open and the global the marine industry realizes what a huge difference in costs Starlink brings. The oceans have no territorial restriction so if the price is right and the quality of reception is just as good or in fact better, it's a fairly easy decision.

The other factor is that Starlink sales must be conditional until a country grants landing rights to Space X. Although there is a Space X schedule of expected openings it is still an estimate so marketing has an element of uncertainty. Africa is still largely closed but Mozambique was opened last week and Singapore about the same time. These very contrasting countries throw up some of the issues. Singapore is a micro state so ideal for optic fibre and little need for satellite, but it is also a big regional shipping hub and so, counter-intuitively, there are deals under discussion.

Mozambique is a stark contrast in income and size. It has good mobile reception near the costal towns but this fades rapidly as you move away from the coast so a likely candidate for satellite if there are activities there which need communication. As it happens Mozambique and Tanzania to the north host big graphite projects, largely with ASX connections. Several ( eg Magnis) are in the process of obtaining off-take agreements and funding, but a non-binding conditional off-take is very different from secured project funding. Its a moot point when they will definitely need satellite comms for their operations.

So to answer your question my hunch is that Starlink's long term share of fee revenues could be more enduring and larger than the market expects, although it is hard to put precise figures on what the base is now and how much it fans out over the next six months. Do Chile and Brazil lead on to big numbers or prove fairly slow? What happens in Japan? The main islands are very well connected with fibre, the north is mountainous and semi-remote. As the hackers increase their intensity and skill do they target the urban SMEs and Japan becomes a solid market for the Naas rather than Starlink kits? But then, the sheer numbers and relative wealth of Japan -and the tourist numbers - could make satellite in the northern islands a relatively important market.

Similarly it is hard to asses at this point which will lead in the Philippines. It looks much more about Starlink numbers now and only gradually about secure networking for banks and service organizations but there was so much publicity in the Philippines about the Netlinkz deal with PT& T that the very next day a big financial organization in the country made contact.

This might produce the perfect use case. A bank servicing about 20 island populations may quickly lift it presence by installing Starlink transponders at sleepy local branches, but because the data must be secure it also requires secure internal networking.

One credible report says that the Philippines lost 1.1% of its GDP to cyber crime in 2021. It was much the same in 2022. The internet is a dangerous place for the unsuspecting