I think you might be underestimating the potential value of the...

I think you might be underestimating the potential value of the ROW market and the fact that we get 100% of that income. I would value the ROW at least as much as the US market so we have basically sold off 50% of trof (with double digit royalties) for ~470m + 1/3 of a priority review voucher (potential). We could have 1b + revenue within 5 years on Rett alone.

A few points of interest for me.

1. ACADIA and NEU will go into joint development for Fragile X (will ACADIA be fronting more money for the Frag X trial when the time is right?). Also what about other indications if ACADIA wants to develop Trof in other areas do we still have to front money for the trials or do we just get the royalties if successful, what is our % share of royalties from other indications?

2. How long do we have to wait until Frag X starts back up again? I would assume they will wait for Rett to be passed or at least very far advanced before they set up the Frag X trial. I would not be surprised if they used the data from Rett to design the frag x trial.

3. DR T has said that they will be using the 10m funding to develop 2591. This is the real value add. Don't forget that Trof and 2591 are very similar so what works for one is likely to work for the other. Also don't forget that we are targetting both ends of the autism spectrum so a positive trial in Rett and Fragile X will allow NEU to look at many other disorders along the spectrum which we will get 100% of.

4. There will be an interesting dynamic between NEU and ACADIA moving forward. I don't like that ACADIA already has a drug for Dementia as this will be the likely next indication for Trof after Frag X and Rett. I always thought that this was the real bankable indication for 2591.

5. How long does the "non-compete" clause last for? Surely if 2591 is a better treatment for a lot of these indications there is a moral obligation to bring it to market? My guess is for as long as the patents apply for Trof.