Mateo excellent deduction of patient numbers. Beats me counting names on facebook pages. What I do recall (and hopefully correctly) is that Acadia have approximately 50 'sales' staff on their books working every day to help families get their child signed up and approved. Even if it's 1 patient per week per staff member that's 2500 for the year. I can imagine their KPI's would be more than 1 per week.
Should not take more than 2 years to get all those on the register on board, that being over 4000.
In the meantime diagnosis and registration should grow to the 6000-9000 as the suggested prevalence indicates.
So forecasting 4000-5000 in 3-4 years is not unreasonable, or US$1.5b revenue or about AUD$275m profit to Neuren just from Daybue Retts North America. ROW had forecast about another US$600m of revenue so add a further ~ AUD$120m (@18-20%) to Neuren.
Lets round it off to AUD$400m revenue to Neuren by then.
I kid you not. Please show me figures that refute those.
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