1)Royalwulff56: "The patients don't wake up one morning and announce they have Rett Sx".My point exactly. Most patients will have already been diagnosed. There may be a few more who haven't but it's hardly likely to be 100% increase over already diagnosed patients. 6000-9000 is a huge spread, they are guestimating. Best to stick closely to the known (4500) patients when forecasting revenue. If you seriously think Acadia will get 7K-9K patients taking Daybue consistently I can't help you.
2) "I agree with your point that not all patients will respond to trofinetide the rest of your post is IMO garbage."It's irrelevant whether you agree with me or not. What I posted was fact. Over the course of the 40 weeks of the Daybue trial and open label extension, 46% of patients dropped out with more than 20% dropping out due to adverse events.3) Also a fact is that there has never been a drug with orphan drug status get close to 100% market penetration. Further it takes 4-5 years to get max market penetration for orphan drugs.
You are entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.
PS: Perhaps be curious as to why most professional analysts (Jeffries, Wilson,etc), have conservative, (compared to commentors on HC), valuations of the revenue Acadia will receive. They asked the most pertinent question to Acadia when receiving one-on-one briefings. That is, "what is your target % market penetration". Answer: It won't be near 100%.
NEU Price at posting:
$13.38 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)