Ann: Neuren and Acadia expand global partnership for trofinetide, page-130

Hottod: "Again, my pure guess is that 3,ooo + patients is possible, based on the 6,000+ patient number identified through the healthcare claim study. But that number could well be lower if Anavex’s drug makes it through to approval. There is likely to be a significant percentage who will not persist with the drug due to side effects (see Mel’s latest post linked below which refers to this) and there are likely to be some who won’t see improvement or won't see sufficient improvement over 6 months to satisfy insurance reimbursement (see PDF example of a Daybue Policy document below)."

That's essentially what I have been saying:
1) that market penetration will be closer to 50% than 100%, tbh, I believe closer to 40% than 100%. According to Mckinsey, first to market new drug entrants have an average market share after 10 years of about 40%.
2) that you are overestimating the number of patients who will drop out.
3) It's simply prudent to value future earning based on known facts. Again, stock brokers valuations are closer to mine than your pie in the sky figures of 80% (conservative according to you lol), to 100% market penetration. Ask yourself why you are consistently wildly at variance with these broker valuations.

'There is likely to be a significant percentage who will not persist with the drug due to side effects and there are likely to be some who won’t see improvement'
Hottod says essentially what I've been saying but because I call out your pie in the sky figures you get angry