Dumbposter,"There are an estimated 6,000 to 9,000 cases of Rett...

Dumbposter,

"There are an estimated 6,000 to 9,000 cases of Rett syndrome in the U.S. and a diagnosed population of 4,500 patients"

4500 registered as diagnosed in the USA of the estimated prevalence. Not an estimate. An actual register.

I am assuming that the number diagnosed will increase in the next 3-4 years now that there is a recognised treatment for it. Yes we can speculate what the diagnosed level will rise to from the current 4,500. I'd say to at least 6000-7500.
Take 80% of that if you like for withdrawal although there were a number of practical reasons people went off the trial, like travel distance which will not apply, but happy to be conservative at 80% retention.

Mateo's figures are consistent with the revenue generated already and the forecasts for the next quarter. That being 620 patients by then already.

Even at 80% retention you could comfortably predict 3000-4000 patients by 2026/2027

The revenue forecast for ROW was provided with the recent news.

I've been called a magician before but there ain't no hocus pocus here.



https://acadia.com/media/news-releases/acadia-pharmaceuticals-announces-u-s-fda-approval-of-daybue-trofinetide-for-the-treatment-of-rett-syndrome-in-adult-and-pediatric-patients-two-years-of-age-and-older/