Ann: Neuren and Lanstead agree to pause settlements for 120 days, page-64

Taureanbull,

 

In your initial response you wrote:

 

"It’s easy to see how this could be tweaked to unbelievable numbers. And that’s why the board has done this deal , they know the numbers better than any body.

I have previously posted how ACAD could really pour money all over this and light it up. ACAD has now risen in Market Cap by more than AU$1BN , that’s a lot of money. They would easily have the grunt to do all the heavy lifting we need.

They will open up the full spectrum of Autisn disorders. That’s when these numbers go right off the chart. It won’t take 3 years as many here have claimed to be re-rate. ACAD and US investors will see the mis pricing here and take the opportunity to make profits"

 

I concur in this regard. As a thought exercise and to highlight this, see attached various sensitivity analysis' based on Trof pricing and Peak Market Share for U.S. and ROW. (bear in mind, valuations are still risked, i.e. subject to phase 3 success the actual NPV of cash-flows would be substantially higher on an unrisked basis):

As you mentioned, if ACADIA open up the full spectrum of Autism disorders, which is plausible given that Retts and Fragile X represent models of both extremes/ends, that’s when these numbers go right off the chart.

Cheers, 

5 x 8's.