NEU neuren pharmaceuticals limited

5.76%

$13.10

Ann: Neuren completes Phase 2 trial in pediatric Rett syndrome, page-36

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thedoctor13

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02/02/17

10:06

Post #: 22309856
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Originally posted by Southoz ↑

“It's just baffling that they talk about dealing commercially with partners etc, but don’t know the results”

About one or two months out from P2b results it is very normal for a micro-cap biotech to sense that the market is picking up a baseball bat with which it might give the company a big wallop if the market feels the results are not “good”.

Sensing this danger the company will try and reorientate the market away from idea of good and bad results to a more exploratory type scenario.

And so from the announcement you see the sentence:

“... a number of outcome measures have been included in the study design in order to provide meaningful insights into the efficacy of trofinetide”.

“Meaning insights” equals exploratory in contrast to binary type p<0.05 positive results which equal confirmatory.

The issue arises from market expectations that are out of sync with the reality of chasing small effect sizes in under-powered studies for difficult problems. Which just goes with the territory here.

This discrepancy however is an investor risk point. On HC doubly so because the re-orientation is misinterpreted 180 degrees as you have done (imo) to create a much more positive way of reading the tea leaves. Namely that NEU must have a good grasp of the results and be very confident for it state that it will be contacting commercial partners when it doesn’t know the results.

But “meaningful insights” is NEU saying that if they go exploring they will find something interesting and they are going to talk to rich people about this.

Which is just like what Captain Cook said when he went off exploring. Which is a little bit different to what the next bloke said when he set sail to confirm whether Captain Cook had in fact discovered Australia.

This also possibly explains why volumes are not quite what you are sensing they should be. The “bet” if you like is as much about anticipating the anticipations of others (the market reaction to this re-orientated story) as it is about those results themselves.

Regards Southoz

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It all nice to get excited but reading some post and it is looking like a ramp up to get out i seen this stock move from highs of 17,5 down to the lows and to the 7 s a few time just to drope back it may be look be fore buying here good luck to all

NEU Price at posting: 7.3¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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Last $13.10		Change -0.800(5.76%)		Mkt cap ! $1.629B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$13.95	$13.96	$12.88	$9.534M	725.6K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	266	$13.10

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
$13.15	1619	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	667	13.080
2	154	13.000
1	77	12.930
1	39	12.920
1	21	12.900

Price($)	Vol.	No.
13.190	1305	1
13.560	2250	1
13.880	748	1
14.000	60	1
14.020	10000	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 13/06/2025 (20 minute delay)

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Ann: Neuren completes Phase 2 trial in pediatric Rett syndrome, page-36

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