My thoughts on the "gold" stemming from slide 8 of the presentation;
- total worldwide potential number of patients is 223k
- potential annual market is $53 Billion at $240k pppy
- Acadia deal has a potential 64k patients, potential market of $10 Billion, of which Neuren would receive "double digit royalties".
- assuming $240k pppy again, even if the royalty is at the lowest end of double digit (10%) then annual royalties could potentially be $1 Billion. Future direct costs relating to this should be a big, fat zero. There is $1 Billion per annum straight to the bottom line..!
Slide 10 has Development milestones of USD $105m and Commercial milestones of $350m. The Commercial milestones relate to net annual sales, so let's focus on the Development milestones first. There are 5 across both Retts and Fragile X. The odd number is interesting, and I have no thoughts as to why. However, I think there will be a commencement and completion milestone on each of Retts and FX. So there is 4 of the 5. Let's say the 5 are 20% each. Retts commencement is this quarter, and would be worth USD 21m under this scenario (CASH..!). That's over $30m AUD, and would put any need of a capital raising well and truly to bed.
These are just some of my Sunday afternoon thoughts. I'm sure I'm way off the mark on some of the assumptions, but even then the numbers should absolutely defy the current $250m market capitalization.
So, my question again.......why the presentation....??
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- Ann: Neuren Corporate Presentation, October 2019
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