Ann: Neuren Corporate Presentation, October 2019, page-81

Hi Arnies,


I was working off Phillipers post #40960748 Patients USA, Europe & Japan from presentation totalling 119k patients (actual estimates of patients <60at in report slide 8 is 223k) but at $240k per person p.a using 119k patients giving global end market of $28.5 billion, 2 drugs across 5 spectrums.

So I think Phillier has been conservative from actual report quoted patients

Under current deal with Acadia ie. double digit royalties (ie using 10%, actual digits of Acadia deal tbc) and assuming ROW is structured similar=10% of $28billion is $2.8 billion in royalties to Neu if this estimate in presentation is reached! ( double digits could be higher than 10% in Acadia deal tbc and ROW royalties could be lower than double digits or same given respectable $$ upfront is expected)

In addition to reducing patient numbers, I was conservatively halving it from $2.8b to $1.4billion royalties globally to be conservative (not ramp) (and as cost at $240k pp seems high) which actually is just current US deal with Acadia if you like. Not including ROW.

Get your point, for arguments sake half it again at $700m aud in revenue p.a in royalties to Neu, what is our MC worth with 100m shares on issue ( given Acadia is $11b US off $300m US revenue from sales of Nuz to date and growing but has way more than 100m shares issued)