Personally, I think yes - and they will become stronger than historically, and will grow as the FUM continue to build, providing they can continue to convert cases to wins at the same or better run rate.
But the transition from on-balance sheet, to the funds model has been somewhat painful, as have the delays to case hearings/proceedings as a result of covid, where everything takes that much longer.
I think the cash generation will substantial, however what I don't have a firm understanding of, is what percentage of earnings will be retained and plowed back into new funds (ie sustaining capital). This is the missing piece to me. GS have been modelling a 25% payout ratio, yielding around $0.18 ps dividend annually from next FY. My analysis was initially higher than this, however it didn't take into account the additional cash burn associated with delays to cases.
Not advice - DYOR.
OBL Price at posting:
$3.61 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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