Firstly, the company has explicitly mentioned $100m in SURF...

Firstly, the company has explicitly mentioned $100m in SURF tenders. Companies never do this unless they’ve got reasonable confidence they’ll capture some of it….they would be well aware of the embarrassment if they had to front up in February at HY results not having won any tenders at all.
Secondly, the dominant player in this market is operating at nearly full capacity already.
Thirdly, have you seen the outlook for the SURF market? Given the second point, it is likely that MCE will be a beneficiary by virtue of the strength of the market, capacity constraints and end customers wanting supplier diversity.
Fourth point I’d make is that MCE completed much of its SURF R&D/product development in 2015/2016 and the years since haven’t exactly been conducive for winning new contracts, let alone as a newer player.
Proof will be in the pudding but what’s clear is you’re not paying for this free option right now. If skeptical, one way to play it is simply wait for the first contract win….because if they win one, it's unlikely to be the last and the micro-cap market is unlikely to grasp the significance of this.