Ann: New Customer - 20,000t PO Received, page-210

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mickloff

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30/04/17

21:12

Post #: 24367485
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Originally posted by Lazarus65 ↑

Putting aside all the 'banter' as we await much anticipated news - it occurred to me that the raising of the bar to 63-65% Fe would not only have the benefit of premium dollars and hopefully premium margins (logical but not yet substantiated) - but would also materially improve the business case for a future pellet plant. No?

As part of my own re-evaluation of all my investments, I found that my 'analysis' of NSL came down to a pretty simple conclusion. Please excuse the following chain of thought dump:

NSL is seeking to deploy proven and existing technology, in a pretty straightforward processing set-up, to supply a market with significant shortfall of supply required to meet expected demand. They are debt free; they have mining leases and access to feed stock; they have key partners in place; a plan to expand with development financing (via EPC partner); they have a supportive government both locally and federally; they occupy a place that has huge interest and attributed value (ie 50% free carry) for potential future investments. What is the likelihood that this would fail? Delayed...yes...we can see that in front of our eyes. Perhaps I was naive not to expect some of that anyway given the context. But fail? Can't see it. We are at a 'sangam' in time and place. Hindi word meaning confluence or meeting point of rivers. Through any teething problems (hello?? commissioning??), and refinement of goal posts (63-65%Fe), and mobilisation challenges (recruitment in a virgin area to enable 24x7 processing) - we can't deny that we are teetering on the edge of being ready to roll. Fail?? Can't see it. What would happen to make this 'supply side ' fail. I can't see too much outside of force majeure type of events.

Perhaps there will be no demand. Or perhaps we will be 'played' by phantom demand from vested interests? The naysayers will say it has happened before. Perhaps it has, but it is different now. What we are (about to be) producing, and more importantly the cost at which it will be produced, means that the world is our oyster as far as selling is concerned. If we build it they will come. How can they not? The global and local infrastructure deficit is too large. Steel will be the bedrock of that infrastructure, and high grade iron ore will be pre-sold a year or more out. So how can this fail? IMO, it cannot.

All IMO and the only substantiation I can offer is logic. The impatience and frustration felt by some of us all the time and by all of us some of the time, will soon pale into insignificance. How can it not?

GLTA.

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Reading the April Steel Index the fine tuning to 65% will make a huge difference to the bottom line.

Over 2.5MTPA it's in the tens of millions. Glad they are getting it right . Having said that would love some sales.

NSL Price at posting: 2.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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