A few months ago I posted the analogous structural setting of RO v. SD.
RO has now proven to be the 'wildcard'. This could be a very significant discovery from what we have seen. The higher grades for WD and RO are bringing down costs however the average C3 cost were $1400+, well above the current POG.
Things are looking to improve - June Q showed C3 @ 1208, below current POG. There is still too much risk for me to reenter but if positive grades/reconcilation continue it will be a buy. At the moment they are only making ~$130/oz margin on the unhedged ounces. If I was Raleigh I'd be thinking about hedging 90% of production if they know that grade is going to outperform as this is something they can control.
No one is forecasting a return to $1800/oz prices over the next few years. Broadly speaking prices range between $1150-1500. This needs to be understood.
SAR Price at posting:
13.8¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held