It's valid to have a balanced view :)But I'm not sure there's a...

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BlackBeak

389 Posts.

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17/04/22

10:56

Post #: 60885897
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Originally posted by helmdacil: ↑

I can understand some hesitancy. There is a lot of uncertainty in the world, there is a lot of opportunity cost, a lot of other companies and investments with less absolute risk. In Berkshire hathaway you don't have to worry about a small percentage chance that you wake up one morning and your stock is worthless.

Talga has a seemingly inevitable bright limitless future, but, until the mine is built there are all sorts of unknowns.
1. Lets get the obvious one out of the way, a 1 year delay on permits would be another year's deferred gains.
2. A 1-year delay in mine construction, or more: mines are rarely built on time or on budget Just look at Olyu Tolgoi in Mongolia/Rio Tinto.
3. A new drilling campaign which will further deplete Talga's cash reserves. A year ago I thought talga would be solvent for 3 years/not need a cash raise via stock dilution. Now, the $$ is dwindling. Mark clearly believes that funding will be solved with the joint venture and european union loans by midyear. We hope he is right. If he is wrong, it will hurt.

There are things that I can tell myself to allay these concerns. Permits should not be delayed, MT did his homework and the geopolitical landscape is favorable. The mine will probably be late and over budget, but not AS BAD as rio tinto. Sweden is not mongolia, open pit mining is not special. And MT probably has internal assurances to give him confidence. He would not be reckless with his own share in the company, surely, I have to believe.

But I can understand. I get it. The business world often operates on the next quarter, year, or two year horizon. It is very difficult for people to look 10 years into the future.

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It's valid to have a balanced view

But I'm not sure there's a chance of a delay to start mining once all the permits and funding are in place? It's not like we have a million tonnes of dirt to move or infrastructure to build before we can even start mining. This stuff starts at the surface, and we've already mined a bunch as part of our trial permit, I can't see why we can't start mining straight away, even if we're building additional long term infrastructure as we go?

TLG Price at posting: $1.58 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
6 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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