@Cabbageman Hey brother, sure is.... way way way undervalued any way you slice it.. I saw it on 18 Jan & made quick note to come back but think peeps got a slice of it today, following this tweet from the company this morning reminding them of the POC "incentive case" and calling out a Dec 20 copper price article.. I just saw the 20% jump following a doji candle so I figured I best get in to it & research quick.. hehe
The article went on to state That copper was at $8000, producers were up 70% & the analysts expected to see nearly $10k a tonne in the future.
"Copper, the world’s most important industrial metal, reached a seven-year high of $8,000 a tonne on Friday having climbed more than 70 per cent from its March lows in recent months."
“We’ve seen stimulus programmes being announced all around the world and they all have one common factor — they are all copper-intensive,” said Kostas Bintas, head of copper trading at Trafigura, which bought and sold more than 4m tonnes last year.
"Goldman Sachs analysts predict the gap by then will be slightly larger at 5.6m, pointing out that the last time it was this wide was in 2005, when copper recorded a two-year rally. This time, the bank expects copper to hit $9,500 over the next 12 months, powered by a cyclical economic recovery, before testing its record high by the first half of 2022."
So basically with copper & gold sitting at $3.63lb & $1867 USoz as we speak the metrics on hillside alone increased by at least 73% from base case NPV to 869m, possibly more but I discounted it for the negative exchange rate adjustment (70 - 77)
What moving from the base case does to your potential SP at EV/NPV is this... It implies an increase equivalent to $2.31 a share just for hillside.
|
| Base Case |
| Incentive Case | Current | Upside Case |
|---|
| 1 | POC | 3 | US$/lb | 3.5 | 3.63 | 4 |
|---|
| 2 | POG | 1550 | US$/oz | 1800 | 1860 | 1800 |
|---|
| 3 | NPV | 501,000,000 |
| 869,000,000 |
| 1,394,000,000 |
|---|
| 4 | Exc Rate | 0.7 |
| 0.7 |
| 0.65 |
|---|
| 5 | Inc |
|
| 73.45% |
| 178.24% |
|---|
| 6 | SOI | 376237000 |
|
|
|
|
|---|
| 7 | SP | $1.33 |
| $2.31 |
| $3.71 |
|---|
So with that assumption and applying a value of .24c a share for Bells project based on NPV $75m USD (which also implied gold at $1550 US$/oz) you find the current share price at .215c is reflecting only 13.6% of current base case EV & which drops to 8.4% if we mark up to incentive values..
Which appears to be way too low for the advanced quality of Hillside & the potential at Hogs Ranch IMO.. GLTAH 8tey
(20min delay)