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Ann: New High Grade Zone Discovered At Mount Hope - 71m @ 1.1% Cu, page-81

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08/03/23

19:58

Post #: 66665582
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Originally posted by dingo0: ↑

Hey Mav and all,

Appreciate the views being put forward, I believe its good to have some considered discussion while we await the next announcement.

So here's my two (or a few) cents:

OZL invested initially at $1.30 but then increased their holding (by ~50% from memory?) well after CNB had shifted their attention from ND. You are right that this doesn't mean we're onto a winner - just another data point for the punter like me to consider when making an investment decision. But I take some confidence from it nevertheless. I do wonder if they would have kept buying if BHP didn't move to take them over. I also take confidence from an unknown institutional investor buying 3m shares a couple of weeks ago at $1.15

In response to your comment on CNBs EV - I note that prior to the ND discovery announcement the EV fluctuated roughly between ~$30m-$50m for a few months. Now this was based on the whole exploration portfolio - possibly driven more by Strelley than Greater Duchess. But they still have Strelley and the potential is still there. And if anything, the exploration potential in Greater Duchess is substantially greater now than it was in 2021, plus we have 3 discoveries under our belt and shortly an initial resource. So I am comfortable continuing to hold CNB with an EV of $150m or more - as this valuation is not driven solely by the discoveries to date. In my view the exploration potential has grown in the last 6 months, and if IP shows anomalies south of ND, or we get a substantial hit in Mt Hope Gap or Lady Fanny North / South then the share price will respond favourably

There's been some discussion of project economics (eg how do we mine Mt Hope) - though one should also factor in the (anticipated) copper supply challenge - and the likely increase in copper prices through this decade. Today the copper price is bouncing around responding to economic news, but at some point - if / when the supply shortage is felt - the spot price will respond accordingly. Solely for the purposes of example, if copper prices were to go up 50% or 100% (or 200%?) in the next 2-5 years, this will significantly favour project economics. My guess is we'll see these deposits mined - all three of Mt Hope, ND and LF. No idea timeframes, but I expect copper demand / prices to be such that it would be stupid not to

Apologies for monologuing.

CNB have a couple of irons in the fire at the moment in the Greater Duchess region and I'm looking forward to the next update.

Cheers,
Dingo.

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Hi dingo0 would like to add the Qld governments decision to invest $5bil to upgrading the power network from Townsville to Mr Isa is a plus as well
CNB Price at posting: $1.08 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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