"DX1 and DX3 have all the hallmarks of a potential buyout - all these animal studies showing multiple novel characteristics of the DX family + the news of an imminent phase I trial will in my opinion definitely position Patrys well for a pre-clinical buyout."
My thoughts are if the company announces their launch of phase 1 trials then there won't be a buyout until the results of that trial come through. Best case for investors is a big pharma will put an offer on the table that is dependent on the results, with an initial immediate payment that may supplement phase 1 costs.
Otherwise if Patrys already has enough money to get through phase 1 trials, they're better off getting the safety data before allowing a buyout in say a years time. If they're months from starting phase 1, looking at the SP now you have to ask how much the top holders have to gain from a buyout now vs in a years time after they have the human dataset to prove safety and efficacy, creating a much higher-value product.
If a big pharma came to the table now, in preclinical, they could offer 5c/share or $100m for the company, a 100% premium on today's price. Seems like a good offer on paper, especially for a product that has no clinical validation in humans. Investors double their money as of today. Would they be willing to offer 10c/share ($200m), a 300% increase? Other side of the coin is what the minimum value the major shareholders are looking to get out of their investment, because they'll control the vote. Why would they accept a $200m buyout when they could wait 12 months and with supporting clinical evidence expect say 25c/share ($500m), a 900% increase.
These are all obviously hypothetical numbers I've picked out of the air and is in no way investment advice. I believe the thought process to be relatively logical though. And I agree with you that Patrys is well positioned for a buyout, My opinion is that I'd be surprised if it happens before the phase 1 trial when they're also well positioned to run the trial first. Our opinions don't have to match, I appreciate the discussion either way.
PAB Price at posting:
2.3¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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