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bernsta

4,390 Posts.

1359

20/03/16

18:20

Post #: 17322358
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Originally posted by nine lives ↑

I had to go out this morning and just got back and found out that I have to go out again. I posted then modded my own post this morning because I don't want to be misinterpreted. Unfortunately I don't have time right now to craft the post that I wanted to make so I simply say this.......I see a speed bump dead ahead....not a road block, just a speed bump. Last night Chris1983 made three points. One was the competition by RFN will hurt VPC. The second was in regards to past revenue and cash burn and the third was the possibility of an upcoming CR. The first two points I have already dismissed out of hand....the third point made by Chris has become more of a worry than it was a week ago. That news on the 15th was not good news....it was bad news. Not company destroying bad news but speed bump bad news. The first Ballieu report back in Jan stated that Ballieu believed that with the sales team in place 20% month on month was achievable. They didn't say it was happening but said it was achievable. In the report on the 15th they don't mention this but make mention of the fact that enterprise customers were increasing at a rate of about 15% month on month. Russell confirmed this the next day in his letter to shareholders that the increase was about 14% month on month. 14% month on month is very healthy imho and not to be sneezed at......but it is not 20% and one now wonders whether they can make it through without a second round of fund raising. If you sit down and do a calc and compare 15% and 20% month on month you will find that at the end of one year revenue earnings for 15% will be about 60% of what they would be for 20%. Whilst neither Ballieu nor Russell have come out and stated that 20% won't be achieved Ballieu have adjusted their revenue predictions for this year quite dramatically downwards....ie to 60% of what they said in January.....so without spelling it out they are saying with their numbers that they are now working on 15% month on month and NOT 20%. This still does not necessarily mean another CR but it certainly means a heightened risk of a CR. Someone here mentioned that they were doing broker presentations in Melbourne last week. That made me worry a little bit....why would you be doing a broker preso in you were not looking to place stock?? If there has to be a CR then I hope it is done quickly and at a good price. An announcement after the event telling us that stock was placed with an insto would suit me fine. That would remove the cause of worry. I think VPC is doing really well but I think they may have set themselves high goals for client signing to avoid a second CR. Maybe the going is just a bit slower than they thought it would be.

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Always appreciate your posts but I think we need to have some perspective here.

10 reseller agreements signed. Reseller agreements are key.

Plenty of enterprise clients signed. Clients are solid Australian businesses (that we know of).

Global payroll giant signed.

New revenue streams activated.

All done since listing pre Xmas and January sleepfest.

I'm not quite sure what else the company needed to do in this time!

Customer reach alone from adp deal is insane.

CR is always a risk in this game but here it doesn't bother me. It just strengthens the balance sheet. Russel and Leanne will have plenty of very good contacts. Not phased in the slightest. I'm sure they will look after holders.

We haven't even started on sme market yet.

Do you think the research report was done over a fair time frame? Mid Jan to early March? LOL!

Have a good evening!

VPC Price at posting: 5.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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