Ann: Newcrest Production Update , page-11

Hi DF,,,I noticed they did the same t last QTr,,,,a headline grabber,,,but when the detail came it was showed a different story,,Ie mining from stockpiles to reduce cash csts for accounting, slashing sustaining capex which is not sutainible long term for any miner,took on 450M, pounded by tax office, even though headline number was good start to the year from previous QTr but lower yoy......time will tell,,,,but im hardly impressed and glad to continue to hold short positions going out months......

good that the number on headline went up, but as I suggest, in the long run who cares,,, on Telfer! with its costs approx. 100PC more than say Cadia ....

and Lihir,,,Im surprised still trending lower in production,,,,,that just cannot be ignored imo,,,,how many years and how much money have they got to borrow and spend to keep saying,,ramp up, Cadia,,Lihir,,,,,,,,

Lihir is rampng down after how much has been spent?,,,I they have had it for a few years now,,,repaired it due to "unforseen" errors twice,invested more for expansion .....and Lihir is producing less now !!!! that's a fact,,,,,and cadia after all this expansion isn't exactly ramping,,,,,,,,,,,if you look back more than simply one QTR

Cap raising,,maybe, they have said they DONT plan on raising equity,,,,but they also said they DONT plan on raising net debt,,,and Ive seen 650,000,000.00USD borrowed in just ovr a QTR,,,, NCM often does ne thing and reality over time is differ,,,,,I suppose if they are borrowing ANOTHER 200M USD chunck with a credit raiting lowered twice this Financial year,,they aren't in any real position to start paying DIvs,,,reality has not changed for the company,,,,headline production is higher,,,but there are plenty of headwinds that have got heavier this last six months,,,,,,,,new guy might raise some capital,,,,,he did signal in an interview prior to his appointment that he understood,,high cost mines might need reorganisation and sometime lower production at selected mines means more profitability,,,time will tell....

reality is,,,alot of Gold ETF and Gld related products really started from the final session of the 31st and have cranked,,NCm being in many,,,


Hi GB,,,,I think Goldfields made a bid for a Canadian miner,,,,usual stuff cash (below trading price) plus their own script last night , some of the commentary Im reading here says they needed it to increase their reserves on paper and that it wont be good in the immediate term if Gold falls,,,,nno sudden flurry in gold M and A though for them,,,they haven't done anything for about a year...

As for gold price,,certainly started the year off positively,,,,,,who would have guessed that the market would seemingly bounce from just ,,just above the yearly low to over 1250 in a few trading days on the 31st Decmber....mmm,,,two weeks into the year,,,suddenly everyone is bullish again,,Gold trade and Gold miners

Anyway,,most calling for gold to go higher,,but saw goldman stick to its target of 1050USD yesterday,,,,,,which wouldn't be good for NCM,,but they are basically out on a limb on that call,,

personally, near term looking to see if it breaks below the
1 2 3 4 number again,thinking if it does break,,,solid test of 1220 is in order and Ill see after that,,,,,,1220-1217.50 beak and I think we are off to the races as everyone has loaded up it appears in the last few weeks on gold and all ETF's gold related,,,,,

Im not saying it cant go higher like most are calling it,,,,but think if the USD isn't crashed as expected when Gold was significantly lower and is basically the same as when it was SUB 1000,,,hyper inflation is nowhere, rate are rising and you can make good returns elsewhere,,then the decade long fear trade still has a way to go to unwind....well see I suppose

For what its worth, travelling around Thailand ATM,,,,Apart from tourists being down at current time I was expecting a poor economy reports,,,,,,heard a lot from Faber of late on Tv's h0w bad things are in Asia,,,but all I see is buildings going up, hotels, residential,,,people working,,,,Im actually quite impressed, busiest ive ever seen it ,,even 2007 looks quiet in comparison to the areas I have looked at.......no crash in Thailand, goods and services still way cheaper than Australia,,,,gold shops seemingly fewer, full of stock but slow trade they tell me,,,,,,,people are buying apartments,,,,,,,just one example of why I think Gold is due for a correction, sure there are problems,,but country seems to be getting on with it............

Like the USA,,,,,,I think rates rising,,but business is not on the verge of collapse,,nor is the banking sector, stocks may be overvalued a bit,,but on mass,,,earnings are positive, so why hoard a non producing asset when other assets are cheap and producing positive income.......Im hoping the market wakes up,,,,alot of dead money in non producing assets built up over a decade,,,,,,, probably be good for the world if it was reallocated ,,,,,,,,,, devastating crisis of confidence is seemingly over.....

anyway,,just my thoughts,,good luck