For their Q4 results, I will focus on the trends for their 3 "core" divisions : digital real estate, Dow Jones and publishing. Really curious to see if they are able to maintain the regular growth of these businesses, in particular for publishing. I don't expect them to continue the kind of EBITDA growth they had during the last 2 quarters : + 24 % yoy in Q3 and + 39 % in Q2, while their adjusted revenue growth was limited (+ 4 %yoy in Q3 and + 2 % in Q2). One of the key is probably to see if they are still able to have a limited growth of their costs, while they are expected to increase their revenues by a low single figure.
As usual with them, there are quite a lot of elements to take into account. This quarter, there will be the impact of the last 3 acquisitions (before Opis), as well as the potential impact of the Google agreement.
Another element may be the impact of the lockdowns in Australia on their guidance, given the potential impact both on digital ads and Australian advertising in general.
NWS Price at posting:
$31.10 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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