FF has a lot of MITRA stock that can be liquidated if he is found to have done any wrongdoing. He's no free rider. I believe his was charged with insider trading. There may be another exec at MITRA involved. Can't remember the details but I had a look at the MITRA chart for the period of charges, and couldn't see much serious movement in their SP.
Re DD - fair enough to be dubious - in fact that is our job as investors, and their track record is terrible - upside - can't get much worse - lol
RE the market - some/all of the cost of these contraceptive pills is borne by HMO's apparently for insured customers depending on level of cover. HMO's would probably prefer to not to cover child bearing costs - lol. How much better do the HMO's think this pill is without side effects? How much better do the customers think it is? There is roughly 76m women aged 15 to 49, 65% using contraceptives, 14% of these on oral contraceptive pills, so that is about 7m women. It is possible that the product could grow the pill market share if the side effect profile is appealing to some women who use condoms or should use the pill for managing endometriosis symptoms, but with an AI disorder are worried about side effects.
I'm sticking my neck out and thinking that E4 will get 35% more revenue than average, so $710 pa. So if they get 10% of the market that could be revenue of $500mpa. The product will be able to go viral on-line IMO, as in it will have to be a part of any discussion of contraceptives as the top end pill IMO. So will it be that women perceive that they pay $710 per annum (or whatever after HMO pays their share) for the best pill, or head towards the budget end after that.
From FNarena
Column 1
Column 2
Column 3
Column 4
1
Credit Suisse - 19/04/2021
Neutral
Target: $0.32
Loss to target $-0.16
2
Mayne Pharma Group aims at Nextstellis capturing about 2% market share of the oral contraceptive market and believes peak sales could exceed US$200m. On the other hand, Credit Suisse expects a slow ramp-up period, especially in FY22 with the launch amidst covid. The broker expects the group to achieve peak sales in FY27 and do not forecast Nextstellis to be above breakeven until FY23.
I suspect this will beat the market expectations of some, maybe considerably too and will lend itself well to viral marketing campaigns that could also be good for Mayne's other women's products to gain some market attention if played well. If some women choose their HMO based on what contraceptive they are offering, that is leverage (within legal boundaries) for the rest of the Mayne drug portfolio as well.
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)