Yes E/W, true too. It is all pretty complex comparing mines. On the other hand, I look at those numbers as a "professional' statistician, one who has done statistical design, collection and interpretation for much of my life, in Canberra. So what can I draw from those necessarily summary international figures? Well, firstly what high grade, middle grade and low grade copper percentages are. The big mines in the Andes that have supplied the lion's share of mined copper in the past century or so, are mining poorer and poorer ore. Grades mined are declining around the world on average, but of course there is quite a range of stories from individual mines. A big new open-cut mine up in the Andes is going to dig ore with 0.4% copper from startup.
We need to recognise that in mining as in most other extractive industries, its the best and the lowest hanging fruit that gets picked first. It would be bad business to do anything else, because the competitors who did would soon destroy you in the open market. Another thing for the layman is that you can mine much lower grades economically, if they are amenable to an open cut operation, most often. Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia too, is a newie, but has only 0.66% copper but a bunch of other things as well from memory. (I only have a few minutes)
What looks to be the picture is that current market conditions aside where many operations have been caught in the crossfire of the trade wars going on in East Asia, we are going to have to pay more for copper if mines are going to continue, in the open market.
Enter stage left the theory of the electric car. I'm a skeptic (eg where is all this new electricity coming from?) but an electric motor is required for each wheel I saw somewhere. These need copper coils. The better the motor, the more copper? That is a lot of copper.
So, other things being equal, God willing and the creeks don't rise, the price of copper is likely to develop a considerable upward trend.
So the points you have made are all correct, but I'm experienced in global analyses, the big picture. That is what governments want, for policy making, on the whole.
As MLX shareholders many of us are pretty battered. I should have sold mine a year or two ago. The chart told me to. But no. So looking to make a decision. Do I walk away with what little I can recover, or do I hang on?
Well, I'm probably going to regret it, but like the farmer who hangs on somehow through the drought, the toes out of his boots and as thin as a rake, I hope for the rains to come. They have bet the farm on Nifty. Luckily I've done well in gold and lithium lately so this is the few dogs in my manger. The pundits though aren't expecting the copper price to get going much before about 2022.
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