All this is in Aussie dollars below.
If you have a look at the last two annual reports in the segment section, (FY18 pg 79, and FY17 pg 73), you can see that about $19.8m was shipping and refining expenses (and Cu price "slippage") out of $180.1m of Nifty revenues. You can work this out because they changed their definition of segment revenue in FY 18. They sold 24,828 t at an average Cu price of $7168 (I get AUD $7,253). The shipping and refining etc cost $800 per t, if the timing doesn't mismatch. In the FY 18 report on page 12 the cost (diff between realised Cu price and copper price) is $779 in FY18, and $713 in FY17. I'm not sure if the transport or price slippage was included in that figure - probably not I suspect. So I take the $800 - add inflation to 832.
Anyway - my Nifty numbers. Obviously based on todays Cu price. They seem impressive to me. I doubt there will be any company tax payable on this for quite a while. I think these numbers would be great if they happened.
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 | Column 4 | Column 5 |
|---|
| 1 | My Nifty numbers | year 1 | year 2 | year 3 | |
|---|
| 2 | Cu price USD | 6395 | 6395 | 6395 | |
|---|
| 3 | Cu price AUD | 9007 | 9007 | 9007 | |
|---|
| 4 | Cu price realised post ship and refining | 8175 | 8175 | 8175 | at 832 per t costs |
|---|
| 5 | AISC | 7450 | 6750 | 6650 | |
|---|
| 6 | margin after AISC $ | 725 | 1425 | 1525 | |
|---|
| 7 | production (t in conc) | 26500 | 33700 | 34700 | |
|---|
| 8 | "AISC earnings" $m AUD (prod x margin) | 19.2 | 48.0 | 52.9 | |
|---|
| 9 | Project capex | 17.6 | 5.3 | 4.1 | |
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| 10 | regional exploration | 2 | 7 | 7 | |
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| 11 | FCF $m | -0.4 | 35.7 | 41.8 | |
|---|
I think it is a good plan - they just have to do it obviously.
(20min delay)