All this is in Aussie dollars below.
If you have a look at the last two annual reports in the segment section, (FY18 pg 79, and FY17 pg 73), you can see that about $19.8m was shipping and refining expenses (and Cu price "slippage") out of $180.1m of Nifty revenues. You can work this out because they changed their definition of segment revenue in FY 18. They sold 24,828 t at an average Cu price of $7168 (I get AUD $7,253). The shipping and refining etc cost $800 per t, if the timing doesn't mismatch. In the FY 18 report on page 12 the cost (diff between realised Cu price and copper price) is $779 in FY18, and $713 in FY17. I'm not sure if the transport or price slippage was included in that figure - probably not I suspect. So I take the $800 - add inflation to 832.
Anyway - my Nifty numbers. Obviously based on todays Cu price. They seem impressive to me. I doubt there will be any company tax payable on this for quite a while. I think these numbers would be great if they happened.
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
| 1 |
My Nifty numbers |
year 1 |
year 2 |
year 3 |
|
| 2 |
Cu price USD |
6395 |
6395 |
6395 |
|
| 3 |
Cu price AUD |
9007 |
9007 |
9007 |
|
| 4 |
Cu price realised post ship and refining |
8175 |
8175 |
8175 |
at 832 per t costs |
| 5 |
AISC |
7450 |
6750 |
6650 |
|
| 6 |
margin after AISC $ |
725 |
1425 |
1525 |
|
| 7 |
production (t in conc) |
26500 |
33700 |
34700 |
|
| 8 |
"AISC earnings" $m AUD (prod x margin) |
19.2 |
48.0 |
52.9 |
|
| 9 |
Project capex |
17.6 |
5.3 |
4.1 |
|
| 10 |
regional exploration |
2 |
7 |
7 |
|
| 11 |
FCF $m |
-0.4 |
35.7 |
41.8 |
|
I think it is a good plan - they just have to do it obviously.
(20min delay)