Ann: NME - Change in substantial holding for NME, page-40

Top 20 NME holding breaks down to 25.1% held by insiders
37.2 held by private companies/instos.
37.7 retail
We can confidently assume that only about 75% of shares are available to be accepting the TO offer.
MCT has to get far more than 50.1% of available shares to get to the TO threshold.
Likely that most of the 30% gained so far is from the retail holders but what about the instos?
Instos usually don't accept conditional offers so MCT was forced to change their offer to unconditional.
That opened them to a risk.
MCT is now exposed to concluding the offer without obtaining control of NME, despite having paid a control premium.
I don't currently hold either company so have no bias one way or another but I think these stats are sobering.
imo there is a relatively low chances that this hostile off-market takeover bid will succeed, even with a positive recommendation by the NME Board,
That recommendation looks to be a long way off.