Cheers for your thoughts Anti.
If I can hazard a guess regarding why instotutions are not knocking on ALKs door... it's their production profile and... a small part to do with management (warranted or not). As I look at OBM and the incredible share price appreciation since the current MD stepped in.
As for the mine plan, very detailed project, I am just keeping it simple. ALK seem to make extremely good money mining U/G, they have a good team that actually mine, so... while the open pits are likely also profitable, the large upfront capex, negates much of that. If they can extend Roswell.... then I really struggle to see why they would contemplate the highway diversion etc (until the U/G ore runs out anyway).
Here's hoping you are right about Driell and Boda 4.
@Joelstar - that Crux interview annoys me a little, I would have preferred Nic to 100% own the fact that ALK is going to miss it's first guidance in many many years. Clearly more redundancy should have been built in to ensure either stockpiles, or more fronts were open/available at the older U/G mines to take up any slack for underperformance elsewhere in the business.
A question which probably will go unanswered, is... if the capex for the highway is $100m+, where could that capital go instead to produce similar results?
Drill out all the known deposits around Tommi for extensions? Purchase nearby stranded deposits and truck (hub and spoke).
Though I cannot deny, it's quite an impressive undertaking if it does go ahead.
Perhaps my highlighted sentence supports my view on the open pits... ALK have time, lots of it, before the permitting expires.
Could ALK look again at Peak Hill... the grades are higher than Roswell.... It's only 10km to the south.
Just some musings to pass the time and NOT think about the paper market moves in POG
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