Well - that's reassuring news, although reasonably expected.
I'm still on the sidelines with this one. The need for a neuroprotective drug is simply massive. The market for their initial key focus of stroke treatment would be incredible - if it works. And then there is the range of other potential applications - infant/birth related hypoxia; concussion and other mild TBI; hypoxia from cardiac events, etc.
So the preclinical data indicating effectiveness looks good, and so far they have minimal toxicity in humans - also good.
What gives me pause is the fact that so many other attempts at producing a neuroprotective drug have failed to show a beneficial effect in humans.
Around 1,000 drug investigated so far, with 100 going to clinical studies, and nothing yet proven (NA1 is still a possible, but has it's own problems). This seems to be an area of medical research in which animal studies do not give an accurate indication of effect in human subjects. Lots of things seem to work in rats, mice etc, but when tried in human objects the results are minimal or negative.
Eventually, someone is likely to succeed. Maybe Prof Meloni is that someone, and AGN will be the team which brings it to fruition. If so - it will be worth billions. Current market cap is just $43.6 million.
Statistically, the odds are against them - but maybe they will succeed. I hope they do!!! It' an interesting risk vs reward situation.
I'm still inclined to take a position, but I'm also still reading....
Existing holders - Please do not take this as a criticism of AGN, or of your decision to invest. Investing in AGN is a perfectly rational thing to do, and it may prove to be life changing - for investors as well as patients. I'm just trying to assess how much I am prepared to risk here.
Cheers
Dave
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