I am not sure I can value FMS but I can provide a comparison. Some of the figures I will use are from memory or approximate so this won’t be accurate. If someone wants to go and find exact figures they can but it should provide a good starting point
Roy Hill borrowed around $7b to develop their project. The project I believe was for $60mtpa. They were able to pay off that debt in 5 years and paid a dividend last year of ?~$470m. That maybe higher given that some of that year’s profit may have gone to debt repayment. So, given similar market conditions FMS could maybe achieve similar results given that they had planned be a 50mtpa operation. So if FMS was able o pay off debt within 5 years and then pay an annual dividend of say $400m+ what would that value FMS at? Just a stab in the dark, maybe at least 10 times annual profit? So $4b+? BTW, $400m dividend is about $2/s annually. Frankly it could be far more as I don’t know how much Roy Hill paid off debt in the year they paid a dividend.
BUT FMS does not have (yet) a route to market or finance. I really think FMS should be looking at a JV with a company like MIN. If that were to take place we could see a substantial change to our market capitalisation.
Not sure if this helps you but this will provide a basis for comment and improvements by others here.
FMS Price at posting:
$1.12 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
